The recent election in Senegal and the defeat of long time President Abdou Diouf is a signal of the growing change sweeping through the continent. But how durable are these winds in the face of other social and political realities facing the continent.

In 1975, three out of the 54 heads of states came into office through democratic elections. This was reversed in 1999 when 32 of them were so chosen. Out of the 54 African countries, there were, in 1975, only 25 legislatures elected through multi party elections. This was changed in 1999 with 40 national legislatures elected through multi-party elections. While this later development is commendable, it is only in Botswana, Namibia, Niger, South Africa and more recently Senegal, where the elections could be described as free and fair. With the highest number of young voters than any continent, Africa is now going through a challenge of youth. The current generation is more politically demanding and has therefore made it more difficult not only for politicians to rig elections but also to stay in power.

Gone are the days when Africa had what Malawi political scientist Thandika Mkandawire described as �choiceless democracy.� The African electorate was then faced with only the choice of electing candidates from the ruling party and a token opposition. Instead of democracy, many African countries had gerontocracy � a rule of old politicians who saw rulership as a right inherited from their struggle for independence. Having led their countries out of colonial rule, they felt they had all the answers to the country�s problems. The result in many cases was a moribund continent in terms of policy, with no vision nor foresight to deal with global changes and innovative governance.

Africa was also faced with another phenomenon. What can be aptly termed "the born again soldier syndrome." In Nigeria, Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar was ushered into power in June 1998 by the natural demise of Sani Abacha who had turned the country into a personal property. Niger�s Gen. Ibrahim Bare Mainasara was "accidentally killed" in an airport shoot-out in April 1999 and was succeeded by Major Daouda Mallam Wanke. In both Nigeria and Niger, the two soldiers led a transitional government that ended with multi-party elections and the trustworthy election of born again soldier Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo (rtd.) and Mamadou Tandja respectively.

French west Africa was jerked by a coup in Cote d�Ivoire and the overthrow of Henri Konan Bedie. Gen. Robert Guei was popularly welcomed by Ivorians because of perceived xenophobia and economic mismanagement. When he assumed power, Mr. Guei declared that he had no political ambitions and promised to withdraw from government as soon as free elections can be organized. Yet Mr. Guei has refused to rule himself out as candidate and postponed his announcement of an election date. His move from army headquarters to the palace formerly occupied by late President Houphouet Boigny and former President Bedie has fueled speculation that Mr. Guei might be planning to stay in power longer. Characteristically, new military governments always raise their salaries immediately when they take over power. Mr. Guei has promised to do the same for Cote d�Ivoire�s army. The promise is not yet fulfilled and the likelihood seems slim because the Bedie government left the Treasury almost empty. The Economic Commission of West African States (ECOWAS) has given Mr. Guei until June to organize elections. If Mr. Guei goes ahead, meets this deadline and hands over before the end of the year, he would have added to the credibility of Africa�s military, especially in Francophone nations. Failure to do so might embolden other soldiers, especially in Gabon and Senegal. It is likely to also expose Cote d�Ivoire to further coups and exacerbate ethnic tensions created by the Bedie government.

Since the breakdown of Eastern Europe�s ethnic identity and the United States� recognition of cultural diversity, particularly in Bosnia and Kosovo, there has been a wave of ethnic tensions worldwide. East Timor, Chechnyah, Croatia, and Serbia are few examples. The danger is now looming in Africa where politicians are now setting up ethnic flames to achieve their political objectives. In Nigeria and Zimbabwe, ethnic loyalties seem to have been silenced by the formation of national umbrella political parties. But even this looks shaky as ethnicity is exploited, in both cases, at the grassroots level to garner votes.

With the exception of the Islamic Party of Kenya, which is banned, Kenya is an example of countries where it is difficult to separate the ruling Kenya African National Union party�s economic and social programs from ethnic chauvinism. President Daniel arap Moi has succeeded in staying in power by keeping his Kalenjin ethnic clique in power while successfully keeping the other ethnic groups divided. In Cameroon, President Paul Biya has also succeeded in keeping the flame of ethnic rivalries burning. While these ethnic embers succeed in the short term and favor those in power, they endanger the continent in the long run.

Of all continents, Africa, more than any other, was more affected by European ethnic insensitivity in drawing territorial boundaries. An ethnic conflagration will, therefore, be more devastating than any other problem faced by the continent. Ethnic resentments can lead to increased violence, poverty, economic deprivation and eventually a political and social breakdown as evidenced in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia. Both countries are now de facto partitioned and do not exist as nation-states.