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FinalCall.com News
World News
Global demand for oil to soar next 20 years
By Abid Aslam
Updated Jul 14, 2008 - 8:43:00 PM
WASHINGTON (IPS/GIN) - World energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions will grow by about 50 percent over the next two decades, according to the U.S. government’s predictions.
The Energy Information Administration released its International Energy Outlook 2008 report June 25, forecasting that “world marketed energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2004 to 2030,” despite the rise in oil prices, as developing countries outpace rich ones in consumption.
Referring to the wealthy nations’ Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, it added that during the same period, “total energy demand in the non-OECD countries (will likely increase) by 95 percent, compared with an increase of 24 percent in the OECD countries.”
The report sees non-organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries’ share of world energy consumption rising from 47.9 percent in 2005 to 58.8 percent in 2030.
Oil and coal—both regarded as major culprits in global warming because of the carbon dioxide they spew into the atmosphere when burned—will continue to dominate global energy supply, according to the U.S. Energy Department’s statistical wing.
As a consequence, and assuming no new measures are enacted to curb climate change, the annual amount of heat-trapping carbon dioxide flowing from energy use will have ballooned by 51 percent between 2005 and 2030.
“Global energy demand grows despite the sustained high world oil prices that are projected to persist over the long term,” the report said, adding that the price of oil will likely stand at somewhere between $113 a barrel and $186 a barrel.
While long-term prices are difficult to predict, it said current trends favor the higher projection of $183 a barrel. Today’s price hovers around $137.
Regardless of the rising cost involved, the growth in petroleum use will be driven by the transportation sector, and electricity producers will rely heavily on coal, the Energy Information Administration said.
Developing countries will account for much of the surging demand, with China and other economic dynamos expected to lead the way. The Asian powerhouse alone is likely to account for nearly three-fourths of an expected 2 percent annual increase in the global use of coal, the report said.
It sees the demand for oil and other liquid fuels as growing to nearly one-third more than today’s consumption, topping 113 million barrels a day by 2030. Crude oil will retain its 40 percent market share throughout, thanks to stepped-up production by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cartel.
The Energy Information Administration also expects alternative liquid fuels—including environmentally controversial oil shale and biofuels such as ethanol, which has been assailed as contributing to runaway food prices—to grow to supply nearly 10 percent of total liquid fuel consumption by 2030.
The United States is expected to account for nearly half the growth in global biofuels production. This is expected to rise from 1.3 million barrels a day in 2010 to 2.7 million barrels a day in 2030, with U.S. production increasing from 500,000 barrels a day to 1.2 million barrels a day in the same period.
