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World News
U.S. - Venezuela: From hostile rhetoric to the brink of confrontation
By Humberto Marquez
Updated Feb 4, 2004 - 12:10:00 AM
CARACAS (IPS/GIN) - The thorny relations between the United States and Venezuela are moving from the stage of rhetoric into the realm of open political confrontation, said analysts consulted by IPS in Caracas.
Recently, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has come in for harsh words from President George Bush and several members of his administration.
Pres. Bush took advantage of the Special Summit of the Americas recently held in Mexico to state that "support of democratic institutions... gives hope and strength to those struggling to preserve their God-given rights, whether in Venezuela, or Haiti, or Bolivia."
In a joint news briefing offered with his host, Mexican President Vicente Fox, Pres. Bush directly referred to the recall referendum with which the opposition movement in Venezuela is seeking to remove Pres. Chavez.
"That cannot be mere rhetoric...because the current U.S. government is made up of ‘hawks’—people who act," political scientist Alberto Garrido told IPS.
Professor of International Studies Carlos Romero at the Central University, Venezuela’s leading university, told IPS that the history of Latin America "demonstrates that the United States acts according to the circumstances, and in a scenario of confrontation, a U.S. military intervention cannot simply be ruled out."
But Venezuelan Foreign Minister Roy Chaderton said the confrontation was not likely to escalate, because Caracas and Washington "share innumerable common interests that must be protected and developed, above and beyond the fundamentalist passions of those who admonish us for no reason."
Ranking high among those shared interests are the nearly 1.4 million barrels a day of oil that Caracas exports to the United States—nearly half of Venezuela’s oil sales, which are the lifeblood of the local economy.
Nevertheless, for the first time since Pres. Chavez, a former lieutenant-colonel, took office in 1999, unconfirmed reports have come out that the military high command in Venezuela is studying the scenario of a U.S. invasion.
"The issue of a possible invasion of Venezuela by the United States is not a concern. But that does not mean we are not going to evaluate it," army division General Melvin Lopez, secretary of the National Defense Council, and an officer considered politically close to Pres. Chavez, told the public TV station. "We study and monitor all possible scenarios. We never lose sight of Venezuela’s strategic importance, based on the fact that it has the hemisphere’s biggest oil reserves, and on the country’s mineral and water reserves and its privileged position facing the Caribbean sea."
In Mr. Romero’s view, Washington’s relations with Caracas have entered a fourth stage—confrontation.
In the first stage, from 1999 to 2001, the United States decided to "wait and see the real extent of Chavez’s revolutionary rhetoric," he said.
The second, in 2001, was marked by "suspicion" regarding Chavez’s commitment to democracy and whether he would stay in line with the market system prevailing in the Americas. The third stage, which began in May 2003, was one of "doing the right thing."
But according to the academic, relations are entering a new phase, characterized by an attitude of "I don’t want to be your friend."
Last May, the Venezuelan government and the broad opposition movement signed a commitment to coming up with a democratic, constitutional solution to the political crisis that is dividing Venezuelan society.
The opposition has collected signatures to request a referendum to remove Chavez from office before his term ends in 2006.
The president’s supporters also carried out their own petition drive, with the intention of removing opposition lawmakers from parliament.
The National Electoral Council must now validate the signatures that were handed in, and decide whether the minimum number required for holding a referendum was reached by either the opposition or by Chavez’s followers.
But while there has been heavy pressure from both sides, only the Chavez administration has been upbraided by Washington.
Mr. Garrido, meanwhile, said the war on words would continue to escalate, "because Bush’s plan, within the broader framework of ‘military globalization’, sees this year as a kind of deadline, because success must be achieved before 2005 with respect to Plan Colombia and the negotiations for the creation of the Free Trade Area of the Americas."
The analyst also pointed to the November elections in the United States, noting that Bush’s bid for re-election means he "must attend to the anti-Castro voter, to whom he promised he would help bring about a quick democratic transition in Cuba, which is now seen as part of a fulcrum with Caracas."
In April 2002, Pres. Chavez survived a two-day failed coup staged by the opposition in conjunction with anti-Chavez officers. He also weathered a two-month general strike in December 2002 and January 2003. Both events had quiet U.S. support.
