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Iran Comes Out Of Diplomatic Cold-But For How Long?

By Brian E. Muhammad -Contributing Writer- | Last updated: Jan 27, 2016 - 11:04:31 AM

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M. Javad Zarif, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic of Iran, met with representatives of the five permanent members of the Security Council (China, France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United Sates), plus Germany – the so-called “P5+1” or “E3+3” – as well as with the European Union High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Sept. 28, 2015. Photo: UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

An historic deal between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the P5+1 group of nations—the United States, Britain, China, France, Russia, plus Germany—over Iran’s nuclear program lists decades-old sanctions and brings Iran out of political isolation.

The agreement broke a 12-year international standoff over the program with Iran accused of developing nuclear capacity for militaristic purposes, which the Iranians denied, and consistently maintained the nuclear program was strictly for peaceful purposes. The deal was initially signed in July 2015 in Vienna.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action acknowledges Iran’s right for peaceful nuclear development on par with any other signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—the legally binding agreement between nations committed to cooperate on destroying existing nuclear arsenal and stopping the spread of new ones. Analysts and observers are discussing the implications of the deal and what it means moving forward.

“They gave up a lot; they gave up what they had spent years of developing in terms of nuclear energy,” said Sara Flounders, co-director of the New York-based International Action Center. 

Ms. Flounders said it was an “outright fraud” and double standard that Iran had to go through the inspections, compared to other powers that have nuclear energy. 

“Clearly the U.S. doesn’t get inspected and certainly Israel has nuclear weapons … every other country that has nuclear power don’t have to go through this,” she pointed out.

 Obama administration victory?

With the agreement coming to fruition at the close of U.S. President Barack Obama’s presidency; some see it as a foreign policy triumph but far from a trouble free victory. Riding on the final outcome of the negotiations, the U.S. has posted a victory, but with caution.

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In his address to the American people announcing the new development, President Obama called it a “good day” and credited the use of “strong American diplomacy,” over the engagement of war.

“Ensuring the security of the United States and the safety of our people demands a smart, patient and disciplined approach to the world, that includes our diplomacy with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” President Obama said. 

“For decades, our differences with Iran meant that our governments almost never spoke to each other. Ultimately, that did not advance America’s interests. Over the years, Iran moved closer and closer to having the ability to build a nuclear weapon,” he said.

U.S.-Iran relations have been at times volatile like after the 1979 Islamic Revolution that led to severed diplomatic ties in 1981. The nuclear agreement is touted as a possible turning point between the two countries, said observers.

On bilateral opportunity, President Obama said, “We have a rare chance to pursue a new path—a different, better future that delivers progress for both our peoples and the wider world. That’s the opportunity before the Iranian people. We need to take advantage of that.”

Shifting power equations?

The deal was achieved despite partisan warmongering in Washington and saber rattling by U.S. allies in Saudi Arabia and Israel, who were unenthusiastic about Iran returning from isolation to the world community of nations. Whether it means a shift in power equations in the Middle East remains to be seen, according to Dr. Gerald Horne, a professor of history at the University of Houston.

“At the upper levels of Washington and Wall Street, particularly those who President Obama represents …They would like to see a shift in relations with regards to Iran,” Dr. Horne told The Final Call.

Dr. Horne believes that’s why Secretary of State John Kerry pushed so hard to make the deal happen. Notwithstanding those who are poised to gain financially by a reinstated Iran, in contrast are the interests of significant opponents. “There are very powerful forces … particularly the Israeli lobby, who are hotly opposed to any sort of understanding (or) sort of détente with Iran,” he said.

Through Jewish lobbyists pressure has been strong on the U.S. Congress to oppose anything positive toward Iran. Israel has done the most campaigning against Iran and hypocritically is the only nation in the region to possess actual nuclear weapons, said critics. However unlike Iran, Israel is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The agreement worries Saudi Arabia and the Arab Gulf states who feel America is slowly removing herself as a central power in the region. Their relationship with America has been solid but is increasingly strained. A November/December Foreign Affairs article called “Bridging the Gulf” said such feelings are heightened by a “belief among many Gulf elites that the nuclear deal with Iran is merely the first step in a broader plan to reach a détente with the Islamic Republic” that will change the regional balance of power.

American denial of this and relatively hardline language about Iran is viewed among the Gulf States as empty rhetoric absent harsher action.

“It’s unclear where the balance would be tipped,” Dr. Horne said. 

Meanwhile in the area of trade and business Iran isn’t relying on the U.S., turning instead to the European Union and the BRICS bloc of nations made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

“And that’s probably a safer alignment among countries more able to at least treat each other as equal trading partners,” observed Ms. Flounders.

Iran’s Transportation Minister Abbas Ahmad Akhoundi said Tehran had reached an agreement with the French Airbus Group SE on procuring the planes for its Iran Air national carrier company, reported Spuknik News agency.  “Delivery of the 114 Airbus passenger aircraft to an Iranian airline [Iran Air] will be completed in late June, deliveries will be carried out in three or four batches starting from March,” Sputnik reported.

Can America be trusted

Should America be trusted in its latest relationship with Iran? Among Iranians, the U.S. was known as the “Great Satan,” a “meddler and snooper” in the region who doesn’t keep permanent friends, just permanent interests, with the exception of Israel. America kept a dual relationship with Iran on one hand and Saudi Arabia in the other until the Islamic Revolution. Under what some critics call the Obama doctrine, the U.S. has participated in “friendly” overtures toward leaders only to betray and invade them in the guise of “Just War.”  Some cite such duplicity along with her European counterparts effort to overthrow and assassinate Libyan leader Muammar Gadhafi.

“They (the Iranians) should be leery and very cautious to listen to any agreement that America would make” and “not open the doors too quickly,” said Imam Sultan Muhammad, the national imam for the Nation of Islam. Imam Muhammad said these words at a conference during a recent visit to Iran where he interacted with several segments of Iranian society.

 “It’s emphatically clear that America will not and does not have a habit of honoring its agreements nor has it changed its policies of imperialistic and colonialistic styles of rule,” he told The Final Call.

One of the major developments between Iran and America were the freeing and exchange of prisoners from both sides. However before the ink of agreement was dry, the U.S. proclaimed sanctions will continue.

“We still have sanctions on Iran for its violations of human rights, for its support of terrorism, and for its ballistic missile program,” President Obama announced. 

This position was likely driven by Saudi Arabia and Israeli pressure, said Dr. Horne. “It’s a complicated scenario,” he added, that could potentially interfere with America tapping into a market of nearly 80 million Iranians. 

It’s been widely reported that Iran coming in from the cold came with financial and legal settlements that go back  37 years. Frozen assets in the amount of $32 billion, plus interest, were released and a $1.7 billion settlement for example was paid back stemming from the purchase of U.S. arms by Iran’s last monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, that were never delivered because of the Iranian revolution, said the New York Times.

With all of the geopolitical dynamics, a changing Middle East and shifting roles, sanctions were losing sway with other nations and business interests were winning out. It simply is no longer a sustainable strategy, said Iran watchers.

“Despite the apparent victory by the Obama administration, it would be premature to say that this would be a lasting victory,” Dr. Horne warned.